This turning point tracks whether frontier AI is running into meaningful bottlenecks or entering a period where capability growth — including AI-assisted AI research — accelerates.
Almost every future changes if capability growth slows. Faster progress widens the path to rapid deployment, deeper delegation, turbulence, abundance, and control pressure; a sustained slowdown gives institutions more time.
Repeated evidence of plateauing capability across refreshed measures, with AI-assisted R&D failing to materially speed frontier progress.
Capabilities continue improving quickly, but bottlenecks and diminishing returns keep the pace broadly bounded.
Repeated gains across robust measures plus evidence that AI-assisted research is itself accelerating the frontier.
The state changes when admitted evidence moves the underlying indicators across the frozen scoring rules. The model should not move because a story is prominent in the news; it moves when the measured condition changes.