This turning point asks where productivity gains are being captured: by making workers more productive, by reducing the amount of labor firms need, or by some mixture of the two.
The same technical productivity gain can produce very different social outcomes. Augmentation can raise output and wages; substitution can reduce hiring, hours, headcount, or bargaining power.
Most measured gains show up as higher worker output or expanded production with little broad labor reduction.
Augmentation and substitution coexist, varying strongly by occupation and firm.
Administrative and firm-level evidence shows broad, persistent reductions in labor demand causally linked to AI adoption.
The state changes when admitted evidence moves the underlying indicators across the frozen scoring rules. The model should not move because a story is prominent in the news; it moves when the measured condition changes.