This tracks whether AI capability, ownership, profits, infrastructure, and decision power diffuse broadly or accumulate among a small number of firms and governments.
A technology can be widely used while the power behind it stays concentrated. This turning point determines who can shape the systems, capture the largest rents, and set the terms for everyone building on top of them.
Capabilities, ownership, and rents diffuse across many actors; switching and entry are relatively easy.
Use diffuses broadly while strategic control and economic rents remain contested.
A small group retains durable control of frontier models, compute, distribution, and a disproportionate share of value.
The state changes when admitted evidence moves the underlying indicators across the frozen scoring rules. The model should not move because a story is prominent in the news; it moves when the measured condition changes.