We've come this far. We can't stop now.
The plan keeps going after the evidence turned
The results are coming in worse than expected, but the plan keeps going. Money and time already spent, pride in the original call, and being close to done all make stopping feel harder than continuing.
- Disappointing results get explained away as early, unlucky, or temporary.
- Nobody agreed ahead of time on what result would mean stopping.
- The people who started the effort are the ones judging whether it should continue.
Who: the person responsible for one ongoing effort in this workflow. Ask: "What result would make us stop or change course?" Look at: the original goal next to the results so far. You're probably looking at this pattern if nobody can name a stopping point and the gap keeps widening. Probably not if a stopping point exists and the results are on track.
Decisions don't close. See above.
Agree one thing before the push. The condition or time at which we stop, whatever it feels like then.
Agree one sentence before the push. If we see this warning sign, we stop, even if we are close.
Write one line before the pilot. What result would make this a success?
A combined analysis of about 35 years of research found that sticking with a failing course is driven mainly by money already spent and by being close to done. Whether being responsible for the original choice matters is disputed (Sleesman and colleagues, 2012). Established for the overall effect. In one experiment, groups kept going more often than individuals, 94% against 72%, when they felt responsible for the first decision (Whyte, 1993). Emerging. Setting a target and a failure point in advance cut reinvestment in a failing choice (Simonson and Staw, 1992). Emerging.