Sense and decide
Think in probabilities; say the number
Replace "I'm sure" with a number, which is more honest and shows where to go find more information.
Borrowed from former professional poker player Annie Duke, in her book Thinking in Bets. Read the original source.
Ongoing habit · Minutes to start · Anyone on the team can start it · Start here for this problem
Try this first
Ask how confident, as a rough percentage.
Use it when
False certainty reigns and people bluff rather than flag uncertainty.
Skip it when
Watch for false precision. The number is rough calibration, not measurement, so do not treat seventy percent as exact. Not every passing remark needs one.
How to introduce it
Ask people to put a number on their confidence instead of saying they are sure or that it will never work. About seventy percent. It is more accurate, it sharpens disagreements, because sixty and ninety are different arguments, and it shows where the uncertainty is big enough to go looking. Treat "I don't know" as a precise answer too.
How to show up
Make numbers normal and never punish a low one or an honest "I don't know." Both are useful. Put numbers on your own claims so it reads as a shared habit rather than a test.
How long it takes
No setup. It's a change in how confidence is expressed.
What makes it hard
A number can be wrong in a way that a vague "I think so" cannot, which is why people resist it. Making low numbers safe to say is the work. Keep it rough, because fake exactness is its own failure.
What it looks like when it's working
People give numbers, disagreements sharpen because the levels are explicit, and high uncertainty sends someone looking. Everything still landing as "I'm sure" means the practice is not changing behavior.
How long until it sticks
Expect a few weeks of use before stating a confidence number feels natural.
How you know it stuck
People say how confident they are as a number, and a low one reads as honesty.
The idea behind it
Certainty is rarely total. A number is more honest than "sure," and it shows where to dig.
Where it comes from
Probabilistic decision-making, especially Annie Duke's work. Normalize confidence estimates and "I don't know" as legitimate, precise answers. Replace "I'm sure" with "I'm 70% confident," which is both more accurate and flags where to seek more information.