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Judge the Bet, Not the Result
Review a decision by the reasoning behind it rather than how it turned out, because luck moves outcomes in both directions.
Borrowed from former professional poker player Annie Duke, in her book Thinking in Bets. Read the original source.
Ongoing habit · Minutes to start · Anyone on the team can start it
Try this first
Ask two separate questions. Was the process sound? Did it work out?
Use it when
An AI-assisted call happens to pay off and hides a bad process.
Skip it when
Outcomes still count. A pattern of bad results is telling you something. The point is separating process from luck, not excusing failure.
How to introduce it
When you review a decision, judge the reasoning, not just the result. Sound thinking produces bad outcomes and sloppy thinking produces good ones, because luck gets a vote. This matters most when an AI-assisted call pays off. A good result will hide a bad process until the process fails.
How to show up
Push reviews to examine the process on its own: what got considered, how the call got made. Watch for a lucky AI-assisted win getting celebrated while the process that produced it goes unexamined.
How long it takes
No setup. It's a discipline applied in reviews.
What makes it hard
Judging by results is the natural move, and pulling the two apart takes conscious work. A lucky success is the hardest case, because nothing looks wrong until it happens again.
What it looks like when it's working
Reviews assess reasoning separately from outcome, and a lucky win still gets its process examined. Judging purely on whether it worked rewards luck.
How long until it sticks
Several reviews before separating process from outcome becomes natural.
How you know it stuck
The team reviews its reasoning independent of results.
The idea behind it
Outcomes are part luck, so judging on results alone rewards luck and punishes judgment. Reinforce the process.
Where it comes from
Probabilistic decision-making, especially Annie Duke's work. Review the decision process, not just whether it worked. Crucial when an AI-assisted call happens to pay off and hides a bad process. Don't judge a decision's quality by its outcome. A good process can yield a bad result and vice versa (her example: a sound Super Bowl call that failed).
Why it matters for senior teams
It shapes direction and consequential decisions
Also fits: Confident claims go unchecked
Home problem: Failures get buried or blamed