SuperadditiveThe Decider

Method 07 of 08

Stochastic

Let chance decide.

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What it means

Sometimes analysis cannot meaningfully distinguish between several acceptable options.

When stakes are low and alternatives are genuinely comparable, randomness is reasonable.

Best when

  • Stakes are low.
  • All options are acceptable.
  • Differences between outcomes are small.
  • Nobody possesses information that meaningfully favors one option.
  • Further analysis costs more than it is likely to add.

Watch out for

  • Randomizing before vetting the alternatives.
  • Including an option you secretly won't accept.
  • Treating important uncertainty as equivalence.
  • Rejecting the outcome afterward.

How it works

  1. Generate the real alternatives.
  2. Eliminate unacceptable options.
  3. Check for hidden information.
  4. Choose a random mechanism.
  5. Decide.
  6. Commit.

Run the decision

Want help holding the process?

A short tool built for stochastic decisions. It keeps the steps, roles and record straight. It never makes the call for you.

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Common traps

The coin reveals a hidden preference.
If you desperately want the other answer, the options were not truly equivalent.
People confuse uncertainty with equality.
“We don't know” does not mean “either option is fine.”

When to switch methods