Future scenario

Concentrated Power

The capability, infrastructure, profits, and authority associated with advanced AI remain controlled by a relatively small number of firms or governments.

What this future looks like

AI diffuses as a product without diffusing as power. Millions of people and firms can use capable systems, but a small number of organizations still control the frontier models, the compute required to train them, the distribution channels, and much of the capital and expertise needed to improve them.

Dependence becomes the central feature. Companies build on top of AI but struggle to substitute away from the providers underneath them. Governments regulate the frontier while also relying on the same firms for infrastructure and expertise.

The gains can still be enormous. The question is who can set terms. Economic value spreads downstream, but strategic leverage and the largest rents remain upstream.

Distribution of leverage

Who benefits — and who faces the most pressure?

This is about who is better positioned in this world — and who has a harder time adapting to it.

Most likely to benefit

  • Frontier model providers, hyperscalers, chip firms, and owners of scarce compute.
  • Large firms able to negotiate access, integrate at scale, and capture productivity gains.
  • States with domestic compute, energy, talent, and bargaining power.

Most likely to feel the pressure

  • Smaller firms that depend on a few upstream providers with limited negotiating leverage.
  • Workers and consumers if productivity gains do not translate into bargaining power or lower prices.
  • Governments that must regulate infrastructure they also depend on.
Conditions

What would have to happen next?

These are the changes that would make this future feel much less hypothetical.

  1. Frontier training remains extremely capital- and compute-intensive.
  2. Switching costs, distribution, and proprietary infrastructure reinforce incumbent advantage.
  3. Open and lower-cost alternatives fail to close enough of the capability gap.
  4. AI-generated economic value grows faster than ownership and control diffuse.
Combinations

What happens when this future overlaps another?

These futures can overlap. Pairing two shows the more specific world you get when both are true at the same time.

Also: Turbulent Transition

Concentrated Power + Turbulent Transition

Disruption rises while ownership stays concentrated. Productivity can grow even as bargaining power moves upstream.

Explore Turbulent Transition →
Also: Augmented Society

Concentrated Power + Augmented Society

Workers remain valuable, but much of their new capability arrives through infrastructure owned by a small set of providers.

Explore Augmented Society →
Also: Broad Abundance

Concentrated Power + Broad Abundance

Goods and services can become much cheaper even while ownership, rents, and strategic power remain highly unequal.

Explore Broad Abundance →

What would change our mind?

We would pull this future back if the evidence starts moving the important turning points in the opposite direction.

See how this path has changed →