Each page defines exactly what we mean, what evidence we watch, and what would have to change for the tracker to move.
This turning point tracks whether frontier AI is running into meaningful bottlenecks or entering a period where capability growth — including AI-assisted AI research — accelerates.
See what we measure →This is not a measure of how many people use AI. It tracks whether AI is moving from advice and drafting into consequential action with less transaction-by-transaction human approval.
See what we measure →This turning point asks where productivity gains are being captured: by making workers more productive, by reducing the amount of labor firms need, or by some mixture of the two.
See what we measure →This tracks whether workers, organizations, schools, labor markets, and institutions can absorb AI-driven change fast enough to avoid a widening transition gap.
See what we measure →This tracks whether AI capability, ownership, profits, infrastructure, and decision power diffuse broadly or accumulate among a small number of firms and governments.
See what we measure →This tracks the race between AI systems becoming more capable and autonomous and our ability to monitor, interrupt, constrain, and recover from their behavior.
See what we measure →